Description
Résumé: Cette étude sur le surinvestissement se démarque des publications existantes par l'approche structurelle qu'elle utilise. Pour modéliser l'investissement en machines et matériel, nous avons employé un VAR structurel que nous avons identifié en imposant des restrictions de long terme, comme l'ont fait Blanchard et Quah (1989). Les composantes transitoires générées par le modèle indiquent un surinvestissement marginal de moins de 5 % en machines et matériel en 2000, en dépit d'une forte surévaluation du marché boursier.
Abstract: This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained from the model suggest the existence of a minor overinvestment in machinery and equipment of less than 5 per cent in 2000, despite a significant overevaluation of the stock market.
Abstract: This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained from the model suggest the existence of a minor overinvestment in machinery and equipment of less than 5 per cent in 2000, despite a significant overevaluation of the stock market.