Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps

Abstract: We study whether climate transition risk is reflected in the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of European firms. Using information on the vulnerability of a firm’s value to the transition to a low-carbon economy, we construct a climate transition risk (CTR) factor, and report how this factor shifts the term structure of the CDS spreads of more but not of less vulnerable firms. Considering the CTR factor, we find that different climate transition policies have asymmetric and significant economic impacts on the credit risk of more vulnerable firms, and negligible effects on less vulnerable firms.