Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency

Abstract: In this paper, we study how potential characteristics of the new payment instrument may affect consumer adoption and usage decisions at the point of sale. We do this by developing and estimating a structural model of payment choice, which accounts for rich heterogeneity in consumer preferences and distinguishes between adoption and usage decisions. In the model, consumers face uncertainty about acceptance decisions by merchants, who represent the opposite side of the market. We use parameter estimates to simulate introduction of a new payment instrument and to evaluate the effect of this introduction on the welfare of various demographic groups of consumers.