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Description
Abstract: Data for the two empirical applications. In the first application, we combine predictive densities of GDP growth for the euro area (EA), produced by individual professional forecasters participating in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), with the histograms for each forecaster in the panel, publicly available. The sub-folder data/ECB-SPF contains the csv files for the EA-SPF vintages.
In the second application, we forecast US inflation using a set of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) regression models. For the different macroeconomic variables in the ADL regressions, we rely on the popular FRED-QD dataset provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, publicly available. The sub-folder data/US-FRED contains two .rda files: one for the one-step ahead inflation forecasting exercise CPIAUCSL_qoq_Q_nhor1.rda and one for the four-step-ahead exercise CPIAUCSL_qoq_Q_nhor4.rda.
Data and code for peer-reviewed article published in International Economic Review. Paper published online February 27, 2025. When citing this dataset, please also cite the associated article and the datasets from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis and the European Central Bank. A sample Publication Citation for the article is provided below.
In the second application, we forecast US inflation using a set of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) regression models. For the different macroeconomic variables in the ADL regressions, we rely on the popular FRED-QD dataset provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, publicly available. The sub-folder data/US-FRED contains two .rda files: one for the one-step ahead inflation forecasting exercise CPIAUCSL_qoq_Q_nhor1.rda and one for the four-step-ahead exercise CPIAUCSL_qoq_Q_nhor4.rda.
Data and code for peer-reviewed article published in International Economic Review. Paper published online February 27, 2025. When citing this dataset, please also cite the associated article and the datasets from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis and the European Central Bank. A sample Publication Citation for the article is provided below.