Description
Résumé: Dans cette étude, l'auteur vise principalement trois objectifs. Premièrement, il cherche à savoir si la bonne tenue de l'économie américaine observée ces dernières années est imputable à une poussée du PIB potentiel. Deuxièmement, il tente de déterminer quelles sont les variables reliées à l'offre globale dont la tendance pourrait expliquer l'évolution du potentiel de l'économie. Finalement, l'auteur tente d'observer si, au cours des dernières années, l'économie américaine était, malgré tout, en situation de demande excédentaire. La méthode utilisée consiste à estimer un VAR structurel à six variables dont on extrait la composante permanente du PIB (c.-à.-d. le PIB potentiel) à l'aide de restrictions imposées aux effets à long terme des chocs structurels. Le modèle permet d'identifier trois types de chocs d'offre dont deux sont explicitement reliés à la tendance de la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et du taux d'activité. Ces deux variables ont été sélectionnées parmi un ensemble de dix indicateurs reliées à l'offre globale à l'aide d'un critère empirique introduit dans cette étude. L'auteur conclut que 84 % des fluctuations du PIB potentiel à long terme s'expliquent par les chocs modifiant les tendances de la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre et du taux d'activité. De plus, depuis 1995, le PIB potentiel affiche une croissance nettement plus élevée que sa moyenne historique, en raison d'une augmentation de la tendance de la productivité et, dans une moindre mesure, de celle du taux d'activité. Il ne faut pas pour autant conclure à l'absence de toute menace inflationniste, puisque l'écart de production lié à des modifications de la tendance de l'inflation indique une demande excédentaire de l'ordre de 1 %. La hausse de la tendance de l'inflation n'est que très peu visible, puisqu'elle est occultée par des chocs de demande réelle ayant poussé temporairement l'inflation à la baisse.
Abstract: This study has three main objectives: first, to determine whether the good performance of the U.S. economy observed in recent years is attributable to an upsurge in potential GDP; second, to identify the variables related to aggregate supply, whose trend might explain the evolution in economic potential; finally, to observe whether, despite everything, the American economy was in a situation of excess demand in recent years. The methodology used is to estimate a structural VAR with six variables from which the permanent component of GDP (i.e., potential GDP) is extracted using restrictions on the long-run effects of structural shocks. The model makes it possible to identify three types of supply shocks, two of which are explicitly related to the trend of labour force productivity and of the participation rate. These two variables have been selected from a set of 10 indicators related to aggregate supply using an empirical criterion introduced in this study. The author concludes that 84 per cent of the fluctuations of long-run potential GDP are explained by shocks modifying the trends of labour force productivity and the participation rate. Furthermore, since 1995, the growth rate of potential GDP has been clearly above its historical average because of an increase in the trend of productivity and, to a lesser degree, in the trend of the participation rate. However, one cannot therefore conclude that there is no inflationary threat, since the output gap related to changes in the trend of inflation shows an excess demand of around 1 per cent. The rise in the trend of inflation is only very slightly visible, since it is hidden by certain real demand shocks that have temporarily driven inflation down.
Abstract: This study has three main objectives: first, to determine whether the good performance of the U.S. economy observed in recent years is attributable to an upsurge in potential GDP; second, to identify the variables related to aggregate supply, whose trend might explain the evolution in economic potential; finally, to observe whether, despite everything, the American economy was in a situation of excess demand in recent years. The methodology used is to estimate a structural VAR with six variables from which the permanent component of GDP (i.e., potential GDP) is extracted using restrictions on the long-run effects of structural shocks. The model makes it possible to identify three types of supply shocks, two of which are explicitly related to the trend of labour force productivity and of the participation rate. These two variables have been selected from a set of 10 indicators related to aggregate supply using an empirical criterion introduced in this study. The author concludes that 84 per cent of the fluctuations of long-run potential GDP are explained by shocks modifying the trends of labour force productivity and the participation rate. Furthermore, since 1995, the growth rate of potential GDP has been clearly above its historical average because of an increase in the trend of productivity and, to a lesser degree, in the trend of the participation rate. However, one cannot therefore conclude that there is no inflationary threat, since the output gap related to changes in the trend of inflation shows an excess demand of around 1 per cent. The rise in the trend of inflation is only very slightly visible, since it is hidden by certain real demand shocks that have temporarily driven inflation down.