Description
Résumé: Au cours des années 1990, les marchés financiers nord-américains ont été marqués par une hausse notable des indices boursiers. De plus, le nombre de ménages qui détiennent des actions a augmenté de façon significative. Si la richesse boursière influence les décisions des consommateurs, la hausse du cours des actions a eu un impact appréciable sur la consommation des ménages ces dernières années. L'objectif de la présente étude est d'examiner la relation entre la valeur des actions et la consommation globale. L'approche utilisée pour estimer cette relation est un modèle à correction d'erreurs, et l'échantillon porte sur des données canadiennes allant du premier trimestre de 1965 au quatrième trimestre de 1998. Les résultats montrent que les fluctuations de la richesse boursière ont un effet significatif (environ 3 % du changement de la valeur des actions) sur la consommation à long terme. Les variations à court terme du prix des actions accélèrent l'ajustement vers l'équilibre de long terme des dépenses des ménages.
Abstract: During the nineties, stock prices increased remarkably. The number of households owning stocks also rose considerably. If stock market wealth has an effect on consumers' decisions, then the rise in equity prices could have contributed to the growth in consumption in recent years. This paper examines the wealth effect resulting from an increase in the value of equity on aggregate consumption. To estimate this relationship, an error correction model has been chosen. Using Canadian data for the sample period first quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1998, the results show that fluctuations in equity prices have a statistically significant long-run effect on consumption (about 3 per cent of the asset prices change). Short-term variations seem to accelerate the adjustment of household spending to its long-term equilibrium.
Abstract: During the nineties, stock prices increased remarkably. The number of households owning stocks also rose considerably. If stock market wealth has an effect on consumers' decisions, then the rise in equity prices could have contributed to the growth in consumption in recent years. This paper examines the wealth effect resulting from an increase in the value of equity on aggregate consumption. To estimate this relationship, an error correction model has been chosen. Using Canadian data for the sample period first quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1998, the results show that fluctuations in equity prices have a statistically significant long-run effect on consumption (about 3 per cent of the asset prices change). Short-term variations seem to accelerate the adjustment of household spending to its long-term equilibrium.