The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada. The new model[...]

The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experien[...]

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multiv[...]

The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP. This method derives from the work of Rennison (2002[...]

Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and agen[...]

The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-[...]

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who [...]

This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer sentiment in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. The literature tends to dismiss the relevance of[...]

Dans cette étude, nous employons des modèles à coûts d'ajustement polynomiaux (connus sous le nom de modèles PAC) pour analyser et prévoir l'évolution des principales com[...]

The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, th[...]