This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on global real economic activity using a quarterly vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility in m[...]

This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allo[...]

We examine how aggregate profit uncertainty influences capital investment activities, focusing on heterogeneous responses of firms. We model aggregate profit uncertainty [...]

How does aggregate profit uncertainty influence investment activity at the firm level? We propose a parsimonious adaptation of a factor-autoregressive conditional heteros[...]

Sectoral responses to oil price shocks help determine how these shocks are transmitted throughout the economy. Textbook treatments of oil price shocks often emphasize neg[...]

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of structural oil shocks in four of the top oil-consuming Asian economies, using a VAR model. We identify three different str[...]

We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of various economic indicators. Com[...]

Replication data and code for peer-reviewed article published in Energy Economics. Paper published online December 28, 2018. When citing this dataset, please also cite th[...]

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identi[...]