We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods include Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification of predic[...]

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for US output growth and inflation using a number of commonly-used forecasting models that rely on large numbers of macroecon[...]

Many studies have documented disparities in the regional responses to monetary policy shocks. However, because of computational issues, the literature has often neglected[...]

In 1962, Arthur Okun posited an empirical relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and real output growth. Since then, the media, policymakers, pundits, a[...]

We propose a new methodology to identify the sources of models' forecasting performance. The methodology decomposes the models' forecasting performance into asymptoticall[...]