We show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both U.S. and domestic macro announcements using almost two decades[...]

This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial intermediaries' balance sheets for a wide range of economi[...]

This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial intermediaries’ balance sheets to a wide range of economic[...]

Central banks' forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, Eu[...]

Using narrative evidence with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff projections (1974–2015), we construct a new measure of mone[...]

Supplementary Data for peer-reviewed article published in Journal of Monetary Economics. Paper published online June 15, 2018. When citing this dataset, please also cite [...]

This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it fe[...]

A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal w[...]

This article analyzes the implications of the global financial cycle for conventional and unconventional monetary policies and macroprudential policy in small, open econo[...]

Using the Baker et al. (2013) index of policy uncertainty for six developed countries, this paper estimates spillovers of policy uncertainty. We find that spillovers acco[...]