This report is the first documenting the Bank of Canada's new model of the Canadian economy, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). QPM is used at the Bank of Canada for b[...]

The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent[...]

In this paper, we provide econometric evidence that suggests that the Canadian Phillips curve is non-linear. The non-linearity has two important characteristics. First, t[...]

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of rising government debt in Canada and the short-run costs and long-run benefits of stemming the rise. The discussion[...]

This paper introduces the CORE model, a prototype for a new quarterly model of the Canadian economy, designed for projections and policy analysis with focus beyond the ve[...]

This report shows that extreme conditions and volatility in markets are much more likely to result from systematic policy errors in gauging and responding to inflationary[...]

In this paper, we report results of a Monte Carlo study designed to examine the power of direct tests for non-linearity. The example we use is the Phillips curve. We spec[...]

In an economy where both supply and demand shocks are at work, there will be considerable uncertainty associated with any estimates of potential output and the natural ra[...]

This paper examines techniques that have been used to estimate potential output and finds them wanting. We suggest a simple multivariate-filtering technique that is a gen[...]