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La présente étude contient une analyse détaillée de la structure et des propriétés sectorielles de SAM (Small Annual Model), modèle économétrique construit au département[...]
1989 | Texte | Rapport technique - Technical Report |
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We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional vola[...]
2011 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the fina[...]
2011 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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4.
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We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of m[...]
2011 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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5.
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We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and abou[...]
2011 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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6.
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We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We u[...]
2011 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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This paper proposes new measures of the integrated variance, measures which use high-frequency bid-ask spreads and quoted depths. The traditional approach assumes that th[...]
2013 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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This paper explores the volatility forecasting implications of a model in which the friction in high-frequency prices is related to the true underlying volatility. The co[...]
2013 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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This paper addresses an existing gap in the developing literature on conditional skewness. We develop a simple procedure to evaluate parametric conditional skewness model[...]
2013 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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10.
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Observed high-frequency prices are contaminated with liquidity costs or market microstructure noise. Using such data, we derive a new asset return variance estimator insp[...]
2013 | Text | Staff Working Paper - Document de travail du personnel |
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