Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently [...]

Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of cu[...]

This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particul[...]

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isol[...]

The Themed Issue Machine Learning for Economic Policy consists of 12 papers at the intersection of machine learning, nontraditional data sources and economic policymaking[...]

This study reevaluates crude oil price forecasts from state-of-the-art VAR models (Baumeister et al., 2022). Unlike Baumeister et al., who use the average-price no-change[...]

The information content of statistical forecasts of approximately stationary quantities tends to decline as the forecast horizon increases, and there exists a maximum hor[...]

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, as a structural model of inflation dynamics, has mostly been used to explain past inflation developments, but has hardly been used for f[...]

Recent articles claiming convergence in macroeconomics take a narrow view of macro focused on the use of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. With[...]

We introduce quasi-likelihood ratio tests for one sided multivariate hypotheses to evaluate the null that a parsimonious model performs equally well as a small number of [...]