Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4– 2022Q3, we provide insight into the formation of expectations for inflation, wag[...]

Asset markets like stock markets are characterized by positive feedback through speculative demand. But the supply of housing is endogenous, and adds negative feedback to[...]

In a recent attempt to explain the equity-premium puzzle, Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations, and replace it by a form of persi[...]

Subjective health expectations are derived using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We first use a Bayesian updating mechanism to correct for focal poi[...]

This paper studies tail risk and its option-implied risk compensation in the crude oil market. We identify economically large premia for upside and downside tail risks th[...]

Expectations play a crucial role in modern macroeconomic models. We consider a New Keynesian framework under a behavioral model of expectation formation and under rationa[...]

We present a large-group experiment in which participants predict the price of an asset, whose realization depends on the aggregation of individual forecasts. The markets[...]

Since the 2007 crisis, macroeconomists have been interested in monetary policies that could help with stabilizing inflation and output (Honkapohja, 2015). Two ideas gaine[...]

The New Keynesian theory of inflation determination is tested in this paper by means of laboratory experiments. We find that the Taylor principle is a necessary condition[...]

We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of indivi[...]