Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of cu[...]

This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particul[...]

The evolution of the term structure of expected U.S. inflation is modeled using survey data to provide timely information on structural change not contained in lagged inf[...]

This paper provides evidence of the quality of private sector forecasts of the budget balance between 1993 and 2009 for a sample of 29 countries, grouped into advanced an[...]

This paper assesses the out‐of‐sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canada. We estimate a variant of the model on a series of rolling subsamples, co[...]

This paper estimates and simulates a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke et al. [Bernanke, B., Gertler, [...]

This paper presents a new test for evaluating conditional density functions for time-series data, thereby being applicable to forecasting problems. We show that the test [...]

This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In the empi[...]

We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecasts. Despite the strong arguments[...]

A resolution of the missing deflation puzzle is proposed. Our resolution stresses the importance of nonlinearities in price- and wage-setting when the economy is exposed [...]