The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question since the[...]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes monthly and quarterly forecasts of the price of crude oil for horizons up to 2 years, which are widel[...]

In recent years there has been an increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information[...]

The answer depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and[...]

Summary: US retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in[...]

Central banks routinely use short-horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook. We address a number of econometri[...]

Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based[...]

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the earl[...]

Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the shortrun price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil producti[...]

Based on a time-varying factor-augmented vector autoregression, we demonstrate that the propagation mechanism of monetary policy disturbances differs across disaggregate [...]