This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Ca[...]

The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent[...]

In this report, we describe methods for solving economic models when expectations are presumed to have at least some element of consistency with the predictions of the mo[...]

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of rising government debt in Canada and the short-run costs and long-run benefits of stemming the rise. The discussion[...]

In this paper, the authors report estimates of two- and three-state Markov switching models applied to inflation, measured using consumer price indexes, in the G-7 countr[...]

This report is the first documenting the Bank of Canada's new model of the Canadian economy, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). QPM is used at the Bank of Canada for b[...]

In this paper, we report results of a Monte Carlo study designed to examine the power of direct tests for non-linearity. The example we use is the Phillips curve. We spec[...]

In this paper, we provide econometric evidence that suggests that the Canadian Phillips curve is non-linear. The non-linearity has two important characteristics. First, t[...]

This report shows that extreme conditions and volatility in markets are much more likely to result from systematic policy errors in gauging and responding to inflationary[...]

This paper reports estimates of the NAIRU derived from a model in which an Okun's Law equation is estimated simultaneously with a production function and a Phillips curve[...]