Forecast combinations, also known as ensemble models, routinely require practitioners to select a model from a massive number of potential candidates. Ten explanatory var[...]

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating multinomial choice models when each consumer’s actual choice set is unobservable but could be bounded by two known sets, [...]

While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese[...]

We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We u[...]

The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP a[...]

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers[...]

There are many models of fiscal policy in the economic literature and each has been based on a particular set of assumptions concerning the interaction of policy variable[...]