This study reevaluates crude oil price forecasts from state-of-the-art VAR models (Baumeister et al., 2022). Unlike Baumeister et al., who use the average-price no-change[...]

Complete replication and data package. This paper proposes methods to include information from the underlying nominal daily series in model-based forecasts of average rea[...]

We replicate Baumeister and Kilian's work done in 2012 to reappraise real‐time forecasts of the real price of crude oil against the end‐of‐month no‐change forecast, the e[...]

This paper proposes methods to include information from the underlying nominal daily series in model-based forecasts of average real series. We apply these methods to for[...]

How well do futures prices forecast the spot price of crude oil? Contrary to the established view, futures prices significantly improve upon the accuracy of monthly no-ch[...]

In macroeconomic forecasting, the real price of oil is traditionally computed as the monthly average price of oil deflated by the price index. Consequently, the no-change[...]

The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instr[...]

The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instr[...]

We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and busine[...]

This paper examines the transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks to Canada and, in particular, the role of financial frictions in affecting the transmission of thes[...]